Jeremy Frost's predictions for businesses in 2023

As the year turns it is important to consider what 2023 will bring. Frost Group has two defined practice areas and our Director, Jeremy Frost has provided a brief synopsis’ of his predictions in two parts below.

For struggling business:

Whether it be “Dry January” or a more general Christmas Hangover we think January and February will be a bridge too far for a number of Bars and Restaurants.   The short days, bad weather and general darkness does not provide much cause for celebration yet utilities, rent and taxes will still need to be met.

We also foresee an uplift in Developers and Contractors facing unsurmountable difficulties.  New finance remains constrained and interest rates are higher.  Infinitely solvable problems in 2019 and 2020 might be insurmountable now.

And then there are the Bounce Back Loan recipients who, having tried to re-establish their business after the Covid-19 disruptions have now come to terms with the truth that their market has moved on fundamentally and they have not.  What they were doing just does not cut it anymore.

Generally, Regulation continues to impinge on the viable business space, adding costs that cannot be passed on to customers and the tax burden continues to rise.  Business owners get only the same number of votes as Joe Public despite the increasing risks they run.  Just where is the reward for risking your personal capital to start a business to generate the wealth, contribute to 50% of the countries jobs and collect in most of the countries taxes for HMRC?

As a final point we see an uptick in secondary personal insolvency.  Personal Guarantees coming home to roost will combine with yet more utility bills, stress in the property market and increased HMO regulation.  It  will be a bridge too far for many leveraged property owners as there fixed rates end and their portfolio value reduces.

Closing Solvent Companies:

Frost Group first started focusing on this market sector as Govt policy towards the self-employed began to harden along with an increased focus on the following of rules for the sack of the rule rather than the benefit it might bring.  It was envisaged as a short term blip, but in 2023.

Middle Income earners are continuing to retire and are removing their capital form the business community.

Business Partners continue to fall out and require assistance with cost effective methods of resolving their disputes.

And the Chancellor continues to pronounce new policy and HMRC continue to maximise their returns.  The days of tax payers paying the “right amount of tax” and treating tax payers fairly are long gone.  Fraudsters will continue to find ways to benefit personally from the system leaving behind the foolish and poorly advised to carry the full weight of HMRC’s statistics for collections and retaliation.

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